Note to the World's Newest Country: Proceed With Caution

Much of the international community (Omar al-Bashir being a notable exception) is bubbling with excitement as the results of southern Sudan's recent independence referendum are slowly tabulated and made public, confirming what was already the most forgone of forgone conclusions: the south has chosen to become an independent state.

Good for them.  It's easy to root for the long-oppressed and disrespected underdogs here.  Since Sudan gained independence in 1956, the predominantly Christian and culturally distinct south has been subject to the will of a national government in Khartoum that is Islamic and more interested in the Arab world than in the affairs of sub-Saharan Africa.  The north has maintained a relative advantage in economic well-being and political power that is rooted in the country's past under Anglo-Egyptian rule, and the south feels that an alien culture has been forced upon it for many decades.

A case can certainly be made for Sudan as a classic post-colonial mess of disparate ethnic and religious groups cobbled together within arbitrary political boundaries that ultimately can't foster any real social cohesion.  Civil war began eight months before Sudan even gained independence and persisted until 1972, when an uneasy peace was reached that fell apart in 1983, leading to a second lengthy stretch of north-south conflict.  The mid-2000s finally saw some real progress thanks in large part to a heavy push by the international community resulting in a power-sharing agreement and a road map toward southern self-determination.  Despite some bumps along the way, that moment has arrived.

At the risk of being a buzzkill, however, it must be pointed out that becoming an independent state is not an automatic ticket to happiness and prosperity.  Let us keep in mind the following potential stumbling blocks:

Transitioning from Rebellion to Governance
The dominant political entity in the south is the Sudanese People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), a militaristic rebel force that must now govern a democratic state.  The UN mission on the ground is helping to establish a modern standing army and police force, but creating a proper distinction between political power derived from the people and military influence may be tough.  The evolution of a successful democracy will require the military to take a backseat and cede power to civilians.  Any serious political strife could put this to the test, as the army brass might move to fill a power vacuum.

Humanitarian Crisis
The economy of southern Sudan was not that rosy to begin with, yet things have really deteriorated in the past few years.  The number of people in need of food assistance more than quadrupled between 2009 and 2010, and many citizens have been displaced or lost their lives due to conflict in border regions.  This is not an ideal situation under which to start a new state, but it's the reality the south faces.


Abyei 
The border that will separate the new state from Sudan is still being worked out, including a tiny but very important area called Abyei.  There is a conflict here between two groups: the Misseriya nomads, armed by the north, and the Ngok Dinka, who are allied with the south.  A commission to decide the fate of this area allocated much of it to the south, but objection by Khartoum has postponed resolution of this issue.  The north was slow to withdraw troops from Abyei, as it was required to do by the 2005 peace agreement, and if Khartoum wants to instigate renewed fighting, this would be an excellent place to start.

Internal Strife
The south appears to have successfully liberated itself from room of the northern majority, but that does not assure that minorities in the new state will be universally respected and integrated into the new political system.  There have already been some tribal conflicts within the SPLM, and it remains to be seen how the new government will handle any internal ethnic clashes.

Oil
Oh, and there's oil there.  Sudan's oil reserves are split on both sides of the soon-to-be international border, and an agreement on sharing the wealth is far from being properly implemented, with Khartoum likely understating Sudan's true oil revenues at the expense of the south. This could well be a major complication in north-south relations and a potential spark setting off a new wave of conflict.

Foreign Influence
Sudan is geographically the largest African state, and its position between sub-Saharan Africa and the Arab world lends it great strategic importance.  It borders nine countries, including Egypt, which cares deeply about the Nile headwaters in southern Sudan and seeks to maintain a strong influence over the country.  Another state heavily invested in Sudan is China, the chief recipient of the country's oil exports.  Such powerful states will go to great lengths to influence the new government, which will have its benefits as well as its drawbacks.


The North
The government in Khartoum is of course dealing with other conflicts as well, chief among them the Darfur situation in the country's west.  This is a state facing great internal tensions and international criticism, and it is about to lose about one third of its territory to a new country many in government don't feel should exist.  This is a recipe for massive insecurity, and the north's reluctance to move troops out of border areas on schedule suggests that they may be looking for an excuse to reignite a war if the opportunity presents itself.

These factors demonstrate why the new state is going to need help to survive and eventually prosper.  The international community cannot simply wash its hands of this now that the referendum is underway and independence is scheduled for July.  This is going to require real assistance and involvement from all countries that have fought for this moment.  A first step is assuring that the UN mission in Sudan remains in the area for quite some time to come.  It's easy to criticize UN peacekeepers as an impotent and expensive waste of resources, but there are some real concrete benefits.  First, they serve as the eyes and ears of the world on the ground, watching for fishy troop movements on either side and helping people flee to safety should skirmishes arise.  Second, they have and should continue to provide assistance in developing the machinery of a modern democracy.  The referendum would not have happened without international assistance from states that know how to set up an election, and advisors can continue to oversee the development of the police force, the transformation of the military, and the institution of an independent judiciary.  Proper funding and monitoring are vital, especially in the early stages, and food assistance is dearly needed.

That said, good luck to our newest country, which should soon have a name and the requisite indicators of sovereign statehood.  Let's hope they have an awesome flag.