The China-Pakistan Nuclear Deal

Way back in 2006, enlightened nuclear proliferation experts (and at least one stupid intern) spoke up against the emerging US-India nuclear cooperation agreement, which allowed India to become the only country with nuclear weapons to legally gain access to nuclear technology and fuel from other countries without signing the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). It took a few years after President Bush and Indian PM Manmohan Singh signed the agreement for the legislatures of both countries to amend relevant statutes, for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to sanction the deal, and for the Nuclear Suppliers' Group to grant an exemption to India, but now the terms of the agreement are being put in place. In the deal, India sought to create the appearance of becoming a more responsible member of the international community by separating its "civilian" nuclear facilities from those it deemed "military," and allowing the IAEA to inspect the former. The "military" facilities will continue to be off limits to international inspectors, and the IAEA accepted this because it will agree to anything that gives it more to inspect, regardless of which extremely important facilities might be kept out of its reach.

The nonproliferation community had quite a few objections to this whole deal. First, anything that allows countries to skirt the NPT and still gain the benefits reserved for the treaty's signatories obviously diminishes the incentive to play by the rules of the international nuclear arms control regime. The NPT framework was instituted in the first place in large part because India used technology intended for civilian purposes to assist the development of its nuclear weapons program. Allowing New Delhi to circumvent this sends, to put it nicely, mixed messages. Second, giving nuclear fuel to India for its "civilian" facilities allows South Asia's superpower to shift more of its indigenous nuclear fuel to its military program, without diminishing its nuclear power capacity. The US will thereby be indirectly enhancing India's ability to build new nukes.

Another big argument against the agreement was that allowing India to ink a special deal with the US would provide an incentive for other actors in the region (read: China and Pakistan) to seek similar deals to keep up. Well, that appears to be happening. China and India's sibling rival, Pakistan, have apparently come to terms on an agreement under which China provides Pakistan with two nuclear reactors. Once again, an NPT-sanctioned nuclear weapons state will be giving nuclear assistance to a country that has developed nukes in defiance of international law. Sec. of State Clinton has spoken out against the deal, but its difficult for the US to get on its high horse after doing more or less the same thing with India. This is surely something Pakistan has wanted for a long time, and it seems that the US-India agreement has crafted the perfect environment for such a deal to be made. One of the good people at Arms Control Wonk summarizes the argument some who were in favor of the India deal are making - basically, that it's just a coincidence that Beijing is making this move now. It's hard to believe, however, that there's no connection. The Bush Administration thought it could cozy up to India through this initiative without serious ramifications, and the current government is forced to deal with the mess.

What's in it for China? One of the most resilient trends in the last 60 years of South Asian affairs has been the China-Pakistan relationship, a mostly one-way affair that sees China give its South Asian buddy gobs of financial aid, new roads and other infrastructural projects, and a whole lot of military assistance. China offers all this as a way to keep Pakistan strong enough to occupy a good deal of India's attention, diverting some strategic pressure off of itself - a goal that becomes ever more important as the world's two most populous countries fly down the path towards superpowerdom. Maintaining a Pakistan strong enough to annoy India also eats up some of the latter's ability to spread its influence across the Asia-Pacific, an area it will be competing with China over for many years to come. China also envisions a strong Pakistan as a wall against Indian influence into western Asia and the Middle East, and Beijing feels that good relations with Islamabad will help it develop ties with the Muslim world. Friendly ties with Pakistan (and its nefarious security service, the ISI) could also help China deal with some of the internal problems it's been having with Muslim separatist groups.

Pakistan has a weak economy, faces chronic budget problems, and must support the needs of its bloated military and 170 million people through very limited resources. China has come through time after time, building huge infrastructure projects such as the port at Gwadar and the Karakorum Highway, contributing billions of dollars in aid and investment, and helping Pakistan build new fighters, frigates, tanks, and military facilities. Beijing has long perceived a strategic interest in helping out poor old Pakistan, and Islamabad has always been happy to accept its generous offers. Now, they may be able to extend this cooperation to the nuclear realm, allowing Pakistan to increase its capacity to build new nuclear weapons should tensions with India once more come to a head. Both China and Pakistan probably see this as a pretty clear cut decision, and feel justified in emulating Bush and Singh's bright idea.

Well, the rest of the world will just have to deal with the consequences.